@article {17345,
	title = {Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction beyond year 5 of oral therapy in a large cohort of Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B},
	journal = {J Hepatol},
	year = {2020},
	note = {Papatheodoridis, George VSypsa, VanaDalekos, George NYurdaydin, CihanVan Boemmel, FlorianButi, MariaCalleja, Jose LuisChi, HengGoulis, JohnManolakopoulos, SpiliosLoglio, AlessandroVoulgaris, TheodorosGatselis, NikolaosKeskin, OnurVeelken, RheaLopez-Gomez, MartaHansen, Bettina ESavvidou, SavvoulaKourikou, AnastasiaVlachogiannakos, JohnGalanis, KostasIdilman, RamazanEsteban, RafaelJanssen, Harry LABerg, ThomasLampertico, PietroengNetherlands2020/01/26 06:00J Hepatol. 2020 Jan 22. pii: S0168-8278(20)30022-2. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2020.01.007.},
	month = {Jan 22},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND \&amp; AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in chronic hepatitis (CHB) patients even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors and need for HCC surveillance in this setting. METHODS: Of 1951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1427 (73\%) have completed follow-up \&gt;5 years under therapy without HCC until year 5. Median follow-up has been 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. RESULTS: In years 5-12, HCC has been diagnosed in 33/1427 (2.3\%) patients with cumulative incidence 2.4\%, 3.2\% and 3.8\% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age \&gt;50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) \&gt;/=12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than those with baseline cirrhosis and year-5 LSM \&lt;12 kPa than those with baseline cirrhosis and year-5 LSM \&gt;/=12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index=0.809-0.814, 0.805-0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100\% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy.},
	isbn = {1600-0641 (Electronic)0168-8278 (Linking)},
	author = {Papatheodoridis, G. V. and Sypsa, V and Dalekos, Gn and Yurdaydin, C. and Van Boemmel, F. and Buti, M. and Calleja, J. L. and Chi, H. and Goulis, J. and Manolakopoulos, S. and Loglio, A. and Voulgaris, T. and N Gatselis and Keskin, O. and Veelken, R. and Lopez-Gomez, M. and Hansen, B. E. and Savvidou, S. and Kourikou, A. and Vlachogiannakos, J. and Galanis, K. and Idilman, R. and Esteban, R. and Janssen, H. and Berg, T and Lampertico, P.}
}
