Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The outcome of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients who may remain in the inactive carrier state (IC) or progress to HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B may be affected by the host genetic profile. Genetic polymorphisms within not only the promoter but also the coding sequence of the interferon receptor 1 (INFAR1) gene have been associated with susceptibility to chronic HBV infection, but their role on the outcomes of HBeAg-negative patients has not been evaluated. We examined the association of INFAR1 promoter polymorphisms with the phase of chronic HBV infection in a demographically characterized Caucasian cohort of 183 consecutive HBeAg-negative chronic HBV patients. METHODS: Using a combination of conventional and allele-specific polymerase chain reactions, bidirectional sequencing and DNA-fragment analysis, we performed typing of three Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs -568G/C, -408C/T, -3C/T) and one Variable Number Tandem Repeat [VNTR -77(GT)n] within the INFR1 promoter sequence. RESULTS: The genetic polymorphisms examined were found to be associated with the phase of HBeAg-negative chronic HBV patients. Using a multiple logistic regression model adjusting for age, gender and origin of the individuals, we found that patients with linked genotypes -408CT_-3CT were more likely to be ICs (OR = 2.42 vs. CC, P = 0.036). Also, given the partial linkage between SNP -568G/C and VNTR -77(GT)n, we found that linked genotypes -77(GT)n 8/>8_-568GG respectively). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that these genetic variations represent important factors associated with the clinical phase of HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection.

BACKGROUND: Greece experienced an unprecedented increase in HIV cases among drug injectors in 2011 after economic crisis. Network-level factors are increasingly understood to drive HIV transmission in emerging epidemics. METHODS: We examined the relationship between networks, risk behaviors, and HIV serostatus among 1404 people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece. We generated networks using the chain-referral structure within a large HIV screening program. Network proportions, the proportion of a respondent's network with a given characteristic, were calculated. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between network proportions and individual HIV seroprevalence, injection frequency and unprotected sex. RESULTS: Of note, 1030 networks were generated. Respondent HIV seroprevalence was associated with greater proportions of network members who were HIV infected (ie, those with >/= 50% of network members HIV positive vs. those with no network members HIV positive) (AOR: 3.11; 95% CI: 2.10 to 4.62), divided drugs (AOR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.10 to 2.35), or injected frequently (AOR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.21). Homelessness was the only sociodemographic characteristic associated with a risk outcome measure--high-frequency injecting (AOR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.93). These associations were weaker for more distal second- and third-degree networks and not present when examined within random networks. CONCLUSIONS: Networks are an independently important contributor to the HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece. Network associations were strongest for the immediate network, with residual associations for distal networks. Homelessness was associated with high-frequency injecting. Prevention programs should consider including network-level interventions to prevent future emerging epidemics.

Objectives. We examined HIV prevalence and risk factors among injection drug users (IDUs) in Athens, Greece, during an HIV outbreak. Methods. We used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 1404 IDUs to the Aristotle intervention in August to October 2012. We interviewed participants and tested for HIV. We performed bivariate and multivariate analyses. Results. Estimated HIV prevalence was 19.8% (RDS-weighted prevalence = 14.8%). Odds of infection were 2.3 times as high in homeless as in housed IDUs and 2.1 times as high among IDUs who injected at least once per day as among less frequent injectors (both, P < .001). Six percent of men and 23.5% of women reported transactional sex in the past 12 months, and condom use was low. Intercourse with non-IDUs was common (53.2% of men, 25.6% of women). Among IDUs who had been injecting for 2 years or less the estimated incidence rate was 23.4 new HIV cases per 100 person-years at risk. Conclusions. Efforts to reduce HIV transmission should address homelessness as well as scaling up prevention services, such as needle and syringe distribution and other risk reduction interventions.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

BACKGROUND: A significant increase in HIV-1 diagnoses was reported among Injecting Drug Users (IDUs) in the Athens (17-fold) and Bucharest (9-fold) metropolitan areas starting 2011. METHODS: Molecular analyses were conducted on HIV-1 sequences from IDUs comprising 51% and 20% of the diagnosed cases among IDUs during 2011-2013 for Greece and Romania, respectively. Phylodynamic analyses were performed using the newly developed birth-death serial skyline model which allows estimating of important epidemiological parameters, as implemented in BEAST programme. RESULTS: Most infections (>90%) occurred within four and three IDU local transmission networks in Athens and Bucharest, respectively. For all Romanian clusters, the viral strains originated from local circulating strains, whereas in Athens, the local strains seeded only two of the four sub-outbreaks. Birth-death skyline plots suggest a more explosive nature for sub-outbreaks in Bucharest than in Athens. In Athens, two sub-outbreaks had been controlled (Re<1.0) by 2013 and two appeared to be endemic (Re approximately 1). In Bucharest one outbreak continued to expand (Re>1.0) and two had been controlled (Re<1.0). The lead times were shorter for the outbreak in Athens than in Bucharest. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced molecular surveillance proved useful to gain information about the origin, causal pathways, dispersal patterns and transmission dynamics of the outbreaks that can be useful in a public health setting.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TDF), is unclear. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of HCC and the accuracy of existing HCC risk scores in Caucasian CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF. METHODS: This large, multicentre, retrospective cohort study included 1666 adult Caucasian CHB patients under ETV/TDF for 39 months. CHB without cirrhosis, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis were present in 67%, 39%, and 3% of patients, respectively. The predictability of baseline parameters and three risk scores (GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B), developed in Asian patients, was assessed. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of HCC was 1.3%, 3.4%, and 8.7% at year-1, year-3, and year-5 after ETV/TDF onset. Older age and lower platelets were strong independent HCC predictors in the total population and in the subgroups of cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, while liver disease severity was an independent HCC predictor in the total population and in the cirrhotics. GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B risk scores were associated with HCC development only in the univariable but not in the multivariable analyses and offered poor to modest predictability. CONCLUSIONS: HCC can still develop in Caucasian CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF. Besides the well-known predictors of HCC, such as older age, male gender and more advanced liver disease, lower platelets represent an independent factor of higher HCC risk. The applicability and predictability of HCC risk scores developed in Asian patients are poor or modest in Caucasian CHB patients, for whom different risk scores are required.

Accurate diagnosis and treatment rates for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections are usually missing. Aim of this study was to estimate the HBV and HCV treatment cascade (proportion and absolute numbers of tested, aware/unaware, infected and treated) in Greek adults. A telephone survey was conducted in a sample representative of the Greek adult general population. Prevalence rates were age-standardized for the Greek adult population and corrected for high-risk individuals not included in the survey. Of the 9974 participants, 5255 (52.7%) had been tested for HBV and 2062 (20.7%) for HCV with the proportion varying according to age and being higher in middle-age groups (P < 0.001). HBsAg was reported positive in 111/5255 (2.11%) and anti-HCV in 26/2062 (1.26%) tested cases. The age-adjusted prevalence was estimated to be 2.39% for HBV and 1.79% for HCV. Taking into account individuals at high risk for viral hepatitis not included in the survey, the 'true' prevalence was estimated to be 2.58% for HBV and 1.87% for HCV. Anti-HBV and anti-HCV treatment had been taken by 36/111 (32.4%) chronic HBV and 15/26 (57.7%) chronic HCV patients. In conclusion, almost 50% of chronic HBV and 80% of chronic HCV patients in Greece may be unaware of their infection, while only 32% or 58% of diagnosed chronic HBV or HCV patients, respectively, have been ever treated. Therefore, intensive efforts are required to improve the efficacy of screening for HBV and particularly for HCV as well as to reduce the barriers to treatment among diagnosed patients.

Big Events are processes like macroeconomic transitions that have lowered social well-being in various settings in the past. Greece has been hit by the global crisis and experienced an HIV outbreak among people who inject drugs. Since the crisis began (2008), Greece has seen population displacement, inter-communal violence, cuts in governmental expenditures, and social movements. These may have affected normative regulation, networks, and behaviors. However, most pathways to risk remain unknown or unmeasured. We use what is known and unknown about the Greek HIV outbreak to suggest modifications in Big Events models and the need for additional research.

BACKGROUND: There is sparse evidence that demonstrates the association between macro-environmental processes and drug-related HIV epidemics. The present study explores the relationship between economic, socio-economic, policy and structural indicators, and increases in reported HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the European Economic Area (EEA). METHODS: We used panel data (2003-2012) for 30 EEA countries. Statistical analyses included logistic regression models. The dependent variable was taking value 1 if there was an outbreak (significant increase in the national rate of HIV diagnoses in PWID) and 0 otherwise. Explanatory variables included the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the share of the population that is at risk for poverty, the unemployment rate, the Eurostat S80/S20 ratio, the Gini coefficient, the per capita government expenditure on health and social protection, and variables on drug control policy and drug-using population sizes. Lags of one to three years were investigated. FINDINGS: In multivariable analyses, using two-year lagged values, we found that a 1% increase of GDP was associated with approximately 30% reduction in the odds of an HIV outbreak. In GDP-adjusted analyses with three-year lagged values, the effect of the national income inequality on the likelihood of an HIV outbreak was significant [S80/S20 Odds Ratio (OR) = 3.89; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.15 to 13.13]. Generally, the multivariable analyses produced similar results across three time lags tested. INTERPRETATION: Given the limitations of ecological research, we found that declining economic growth and increasing national income inequality were associated with an elevated probability of a large increase in the number of HIV diagnoses among PWID in EEA countries during the last decade. HIV prevention may be more effective if developed within national and European-level policy contexts that promote income equality, especially among vulnerable groups.

Melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene variants are a major contributor to pigmentation characteristics and the modulation of sporadic basal cell carcinoma (BCC) risk. This is a hospital-based, case-control study to investigate the association of MC1R variants and pigmentary characteristics with the risk of BCC development in a Southern European population in Greece. In total, 141 patients with BCC and 166 controls were studied. Increased BCC risk was found for the presence of 2 or more MC1R variants (OR:3.07, 95% CI:1.13-8.34), or 2 or more variants of which at least 1 was major function (OR:7.15, 95% CI:1.37-5.52), after adjustment for the 'red hair colour' (RHC) phenotype. Increased BCC risk persisted in the presence of 2 or more MC1R variants (OR:4.15, 95% CI:1.35-12.72), after adjustment for potential confounding factors including skin color (P:0.237) and atypical nevi (OR:9.57, 95% CI:2.19-41.81, P:0.003). MC1R genotype is a risk factor for the development of BCC in Greek patients independently of pigmentary characteristics, and the combination of MC1R variants may modulate this risk.

AIMS: To (i) describe an intervention implemented in response to the HIV-1 outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in Greece (ARISTOTLE programme), (ii) assess its success in identifying and testing this population and (iii) describe socio-demographic characteristics, risk behaviours and access to treatment/prevention, estimate HIV prevalence and identify risk factors, as assessed at the first participation of PWIDs. DESIGN: A 'seek, test, treat, retain' intervention employing five rounds of respondent-driven sampling. SETTING: Athens, Greece (2012-13). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3320 individuals who had injected drugs in the past 12 months. INTERVENTION: ARISTOTLE is an intervention that involves reaching out to high-risk, hard-to-reach PWIDs ('seek'), engaging them in HIV testing and providing information and materials to prevent HIV ('test') and initiating and maintaining anti-retroviral and opioid substitution treatment for those testing positive ('treat' and 'retain'). MEASUREMENTS: Blood samples were collected for HIV testing and personal interviews were conducted. FINDINGS: ARISTOTLE recruited 3320 PWIDs during the course of 13.5 months. More than half (54%) participated in multiple rounds, resulting in 7113 visits. HIV prevalence was 15.1%. At their first contact with the programme, 12.5% were on opioid substitution treatment programmes and the median number of free syringes they had received in the preceding month was 0. In the multivariable analysis, apart from injection-related variables, homelessness was a risk factor for HIV infection in male PWIDs [odds ratio (OR) yes versus no = 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41, 2.52] while, in female PWIDS, the number of sexual partners (OR for > 5 versus one partner in the past year = 4.12, 95% CI = 1.93, 8.77) and history of imprisonment (OR yes versus no = 2.76, 95% CI = 1.43, 5.31) were associated with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: In Athens, Greece, the ARISTOTLE intervention for identifying HIV-positive people among people who inject drugs (PWID) facilitated rapid identification of a hidden population experiencing an outbreak and provided HIV testing, counselling and linkage to care. According to ARISTOTLE data, the 2011 HIV outbreak in Athens resulted in 15% HIV infection among PWID. Risk factors for HIV among PWID included homelessness in men and history of imprisonment and number of sexual partners in women.