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Selected Papers

2024
Varotsos C, Sarlis NV, Mazei, Y., Saldaev D, M. E. A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event. Forecasting [Internet]. 2024;6(1):187-203. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016). In September 2022, La Niña entered its third year and was unlikely to continue through 2024. Instead, since 2022, forecasts have pointed to a transition from La Niña to a Neutral phase in the summer or late 2023. The onset of El Niño occurred around April 2023, and it is anticipated by sophisticated models to be a strong event through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023–February 2024). The aim of this study is to demonstrate the ability of the combination of two new methods to improve the accuracy of the above claim because El Niño apart from climate anomalies, significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies, regulating the spread of diseases by insects (e.g., malaria and dengue fever), and influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. This is done by exploring first the previous major El Niño events in the period January 1876–July 2023. Our calculations show that the ongoing 2023–2024 El Niño will not be the strongest.
2022
Varotsos CA, Mkrtchyan FA, Soldatov VY. Remote monitoring of atmospheric and hydrophysical characteristics of the water surface based on microwave radiometric measurements. Remote Sensing [Internet]. 2022;14(15):3527. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This work summarizes the main characteristics of atmospheric and hydro-physical parameters of the water surface derived from microwave radiometric data. First, current knowledge based on experimental measurements and model calculations of emissivity of the atmosphere and water surface in the microwave spectrum is presented. Emphasis is placed on remote radio-physical methods that have the peculiarity of being related to atmospheric radio-transparency which is one of the main advantages of the microwave radiometric method compared to optical and infrared methods. A detailed presentation is attempted with specific examples of classification of water surface phenomena using software modules included in the system used for the processing of data of radio-physical experiments by the Cosmos-1500 satellite. In addition, the statistical characteristics of the “spotting” of radio-brightness temperatures obtained for the most informative thresholds are analyzed and it is argued that these characteristics for the Pacific areas can also be used to detect abnormal phenomena on the water surface of the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, it is emphasized that the results obtained from this work make it possible to rapidly evaluate various parameters such as temperature, water surface waves, foam formation areas, etc., providing predictions and allocating irregular areas.
2020
Varotsos CA, Krapivin VF, Mkrtchyan FA. A new passive microwave tool for operational forest fires detection: a case study of siberia in 2019. Remote Sensing [Internet]. 2020;12(5):835. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for early detection of forest fires, especially in forest zones prone to fires using microwave remote sensing and information-modeling tools. A decision-making system is developed as a tool for operational coupled analysis of modeling results and remote sensing data. The main operating structure of this system has blocks that calculate the moisture of forest canopy, the soil-litter layer, and the forest physical temperature using the observed brightness temperature provided by the flying platform IL-18 equipped with passive microwave radiometers of 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz frequencies. The hydrological parameters of the forest are assessed with both a developed regional hydrological model and remote sensing observations. The hydrological model allows for the detection of fire-prone zones that are subject to remote sensing when modeling results are corrected and thermal temperatures are evaluated. An approach for the real time forest fires classification via daytime remote sensing observations is proposed. The relative theoretical and experimental results presented here have allowed us to use a new approach to forests monitoring during periods of potential fire. A decision-making algorithm is presented that aims at analyzing data flows from radiometers located on the remote sensing platform to calculate the probability of forest fire occurring in geographical pixels. As case study, the state of forest fires that occurred in Siberia in 2019 using microwave remote sensing measurements conducted by a flying IL-18 laboratory is presented. This remote sensing platform is equipped with optical and microwave tools that allow the optical and microwave images of the observed forest areas. The main operating frequencies of microwave radiometers are 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz. Microwave radiometers provide data on water content in the forest canopy and on litter and physical temperatures. Based on the long-term measurements made in Siberia, the possible improvement of the proposed decision-making system for future relevant studies is discussed in detail. The basic idea of cost-effective monitoring of forested areas consists of a two-stage exploration of fire risk zones. The first monitoring stage is performed using the hydrological model of the study area to identify low moisture areas of the forest canopy and litter. The second stage of monitoring is conducted using the remote sensing platform only in the local fire-dangerous areas in order to more precisely identify the areas prone to fire and to detect and diagnose real burning zones. The developed algorithm allows the calculation of physical temperatures and the detection of temperature anomalies based on measured brightness temperatures. Finally, the spatial distribution of the probability of forest fire occurrence is given as an example of the decision-making system along with a comparison of this distribution with the satellite images provided by the EOSDIS Land data.
2016
Lovejoy S, Varotsos C. Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcings. Earth System Dynamics [Internet]. 2016;7(1):133-150. Publisher's VersionAbstract
At scales much longer than the deterministic predictability limits (about 10 days), the statistics of the atmosphere undergoes a drastic transition, the high-frequency weather acts as a random forcing on the lower-frequency macroweather. In addition, up to decadal and centennial scales the equivalent radiative forcings of solar, volcanic and anthropogenic perturbations are small compared to the mean incoming solar flux. This justifies the common practice of reducing forcings to radiative equivalents (which are assumed to combine linearly), as well as the development of linear stochastic models, including for forecasting at monthly to decadal scales. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its scale range, we use last millennium simulations, with both the simplified Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model and the NASA GISS E2-R fully coupled GCM. We systematically compare the statistical properties of solar-only, volcanic-only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of timescales from 1 to 1000 years. We also compare the statistics to multiproxy temperature reconstructions. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the ZC and GCM models is too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than  ≈  50 years, the solar and volcanic forcings combine subadditively (nonlinearly) compounding the weakness of the response; and (c) the models display another nonlinear effect at shorter timescales: their sensitivities are much higher for weak forcing than for strong forcing (their intermittencies are different) and we quantify this with statistical scaling exponents.
2006
Varotsos C, Kirk-Davidoff D. Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature variations at the region 60 S–60 N. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics [Internet]. 2006;6(12):4093-4100. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Global column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964–2004) and satellite-borne (1978–2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitudes than in the tropics at long time scales, while for ozone, the exponent is larger in tropics than in the mid-latitudes. In general, greater persistence could be a result of either stronger positive feedbacks or larger inertia. Therefore, the increased slope of the power distribution of temperature in mid-latitudes at long time scales compared to the slope in the tropics could be connected to the poleward increase in climate sensitivity predicted by the global climate models. The detrended fluctuation analysis of model and observed time series provides a helpful tool for visualizing errors in the treatment of long-range correlations, whose correct modeling would greatly enhance confidence in long-term climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling.
2002
Varotsos C.

The southern hemisphere ozone hole split in 2002

. Environmental Science and Pollution Research [Internet]. 2002;9(6):375-376. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Among the most important aspects of the atmospheric pollution problem are the anthropogenic impacts on the stratospheric ozone layer, the related trends of the total ozone content drop and the solar ultraviolet radiation enhancement at the Earth’s surface level. During September 2002, the ozone hole over the Antarctic was much smaller than in the previous six years. It has split into two separate holes, due to the appearance of sudden stratospheric warming that has never been observed before in the southern hemisphere.The analysis of this unprecedented event is attempted, regarding both the meteorological and photochemical aspects, in terms of the unusual thermal field patterns and the induced polar vortex disturbances.
1995
von der Gaden P, Rex M, Harris NR, Lucic D, Knudsen BM, Braathen G, Varotsos C. Observational evidence for chemical ozone depletion over the Arctic in winter 1991–92. NATURE [Internet]. 1995;375(6527):131. Publisher's VersionAbstract
LONG-TERM depletion of ozone has been observed since the early 1980s in the Antarctic polar vortex, and more recently at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, with most of the ozone loss occurring in the lower stratosphere1. Insufficient measurements of ozone exist, however, to determine decadal trends in ozone concentration in the Arctic winter. Several studies of ozone concentrations in the Arctic vortex have inferred that chemical ozone loss has occurred2–11; but because natural variations in ozone concentration at any given location can be large, deducing long-term trends from time series is fraught with difficulties. The approaches used previously have often been indirect, typically relying on relationships between ozone and long-lived tracers. Most recently Manney et al.11used such an approach, based on satellite measurements, to conclude that the observed ozone decrease of about 20% in the lower stratosphere in February and March 1993 was caused by chemical, rather than dynamical, processes. Here we report the results of a new approach to calculate chemical ozone destruction rates that allows us to compare ozone concentrations in specific air parcels at different times, thus avoiding the need to make assumptions about ozone/tracer ratios. For the Arctic vortex of the 1991-92 winter we find that, at 20 km altitude, chemical ozone loss occurred only between early January and mid February and that the loss is proportional to the exposure to sunlight. The timing and magnitude are broadly consistent with existing understanding of photochemical ozone-depletion processes.