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SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance data can predict hospitalizations and ICU admissions

Citation:

Galani A, Aalizadeh R, Kostakis M, Markou A, Alygizakis N, Lytras T, Adamopoulos PG, Peccia J, Thompson DC, Kontou A, Karagiannidis A, Lianidou ES, Avgeris M, Paraskevis D, Tsiodras S, Scorilas A, Vasiliou V, Dimopoulos MA, Thomaidis NS. SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance data can predict hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Sci Total Environ 2022;804:150-151.

Abstract:

We measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Attica, Greece, by RT-qPCR for the environmental surveillance of COVID-19 for 6 months. The lag between RNA load and pandemic indicators (COVID-19 hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) was calculated using a grid search. Our results showed that RNA load in raw wastewater is a leading indicator of positive COVID-19 cases, new hospitalization and admission into ICUs by 5, 8 and 9 days, respectively. Modelling techniques based on distributed/fixed lag modelling, linear regression and artificial neural networks were utilized to build relationships between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater and pandemic health indicators. SARS-CoV-2 mutation analysis in wastewater during the third pandemic wave revealed that the alpha-variant was dominant. Our results demonstrate that clinical and environmental surveillance data can be combined to create robust models to study the on-going COVID-19 infection dynamics and provide an early warning for increased hospital admissions.

Notes:

Galani, AikateriniAalizadeh, RezaKostakis, MariosMarkou, AthinaAlygizakis, NikiforosLytras, TheodoreAdamopoulos, Panagiotis GPeccia, JordanThompson, David CKontou, AikateriniKaragiannidis, ApostolosLianidou, Evi SAvgeris, MargaritisParaskevis, DimitriosTsiodras, SotiriosScorilas, AndreasVasiliou, VasilisDimopoulos, Meletios-AthanasiosThomaidis, Nikolaos SengNetherlands2021/10/09 06:00Sci Total Environ. 2021 Sep 7;804:150151. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150151.