Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

Citation:

Nastos, P.T. & Zerefos, C.S. Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece. Advances in Geosciences 16, 55 - 62 (2008). Copy at http://www.tinyurl.com/zzwcfsc
adv_geosci_2008.pdf748 KB

Abstract:

The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001) are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (%) exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country) and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

Notes:

Cited By :22Export Date: 2 November 2015Correspondence Address: Nastos, P. T.; Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of AthensGreece; email: nastos@geol.uoa.grReferences: Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Flocas, H., and Maheras, P.: Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: Present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P), Adv. Geosci., 7, 9-14, 2006, http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/9/2006/Bornstein, R., Lin, Q., Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three cases studies (2000) Atmos Environ, 34, pp. 507-516;Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Monti, F., Nanni, T., Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution in Italy over the last 120 years (2004) J. Geophys. Res, 109, pp. D05102. , doi:10.1029/2003JD004296; Douville, H., Chauvin, F., Planton, S., Royer, J.F., Salas-Melia, D., Tyteca, S., Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols (2002) Clim. Dyn, 20, p. 4568; Feidas, H., Noulopoulou, C., Makrogiannis, T., Bora-Senta, E., Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 19552001 (2007) Theor. Appl. Climatol, 87, pp. 155-177; Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., Hegerl, G.C., Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record (2005) J. Climate, 18 (9), pp. 1326-1350; Guo, X., Fu, D., Wang, J., Mesoscale convective precipitation system, modifiedd by urbanization in Beijing City (2006) Atmos. Res, 82, pp. 112-126; Hurrell, J.W., Van Loon, H., Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (1997) Climatic Change, 36, pp. 301-326; Climate Change 2001, The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third IPCC Scientific Assessment (2001) Model Evaluation, , IPCC:, Chapter 8; Jolliffe, I.T., (1986) Principal Component Analysis, , Springer-Verlag, New York; Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Plummer, N., Trends in highfrequency climate variability in the twentieth century (1995) Nature, 377, pp. 217-220; Krichak, S.O., Alpert, P., Signatures of the NAO in the tmospheric circulation during wet winter months over the Mediterranean region (2005) Theor. Appl. Climatol, 82, pp. 27-39; Mantis, H. T., Repapis, C. C., Philandras, C. M., Paliatsos, A. G., and Amanatidis, G. T: The spatial and temporal structure of the precipitation climate the Eastern Mediterranean; Background for a study of Climate Change, EUR 17458 - Eastern Europe and Global Change, Kassandra, Halkidiki, Greece, 3-10 ctober 1994, 125-131, edited by: Ghazi, A., Mathy, P., and Zerefos, C, 1994Metaxas, D.A., Philandras, C.M., Nastos, P.T., Repapis, C.C., Variability of precipitation pattern in Greece during the year (1999) Fresen. Environ. Bull, 8, pp. 1-6; Nastos, P.T., Changements de la pluviosite en region Hellenique pendant la periode 1858-1992 (1993) Proceedings of the 6th Colloque International de Climatologie, 6, pp. 183-190. , 22-25 Septembre, Thessaloniki, Grece; Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece, Adv. Geosci., 10, 59-66, 2007, http://www.adv-geosci.net/10/ 59/2007/Neyers, S.: On the statistical analysis of meteorological observations, WMO Techn Note No. 143, 1990Philandras, C.M., Metaxas, D.A., Nastos, P.T., Climate variability and urbanization in Athens (1999) Theor. Appl. Climatol, 63 (12), pp. 65-72; Repapis, C. C.: Temporal, fluctuations of precipitation in Greece. Rivista di Meteor Aeron, XLVI, 1-2, 19-25, 1986Richman, M.B., Rotation of principal components (1986) J. Climatol, 6, pp. 293-335; Ross, R.J., Elliott, W.P., Radiosonde-based Northern Hemisphere tropospheric water vapour trends (2001) J. Climate, 14, p. 16021612; Sun, B., Groisman, P.Y., Bradley, R.S., Keiming, F.T., Temporal Changes in the Observed Relationship between Cloud Cover and Surface Air Temperature (2000) J. Climate, 13, pp. 4341-4357; Thorn, H.C.S., A note on the gamma distribution (1958) Mon. Weather Rev, 86, pp. 117-122; Thom, H.C.S., (1971) Some methods of climatological analysis, , WMO Techn Note No. 81; Torrence, C., Compo, G.P., A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis (1998) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 79, pp. 61-78; Trenberth, K. E, Dai, A, Rasmussen, R. M, and Parsons, D. B, The changing character of precipitation, Bull. Amer. MeteorolSoc, 84, 1205-1217, 2003Turkes, M., Erlat, E., Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930-2000, Int (2005) J. Climatol, 23, pp. 1771-1796; Wilks, D.S., (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, , Academic Press: San Diego, CA; Zhang, X., Hogg, W.D., Mekis, E., Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events in Canada (2001) J. Climate, 14, pp. 1923-1936

Publisher's Version