On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece

Citation:

Nastos, P.T. & Zerefos, C.S. On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece. Advances in Geosciences 10, 59-66 (2007). Copy at http://www.tinyurl.com/y62d6o7v
adv_geosci_2007.pdf580 KB

Abstract:

The paper studies changes in daily precipitation records at the National Observatory, Athens, during the period 1891-2004. This is the longest available time series of precipitation for Greece. The results show that both the shape and scale parameter of a fitted two parameter gamma distribution for the last two decades do show a significant difference of these parameters, when compared to any previous period from the 1890s through the 1970s. Also important changes are observed in daily precipitation totals exceeding various thresholds such as 10, 20, 30 and 50 mm. More specifically, a negative trend in the number of wet days (remarkable after 1968) and a positive trend in extreme daily precipitation are evident. The changes of heavy and extreme precipitation events in this part of SE Europe have significant environmental consequences which cause considerable damage and loss of life.

Notes:

Adv. Geosci.Cited By (since 1996):20Export Date: 13 October 2014Correspondence Address: Nastos, P.T.; Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of AthensGreece; email: nastos@geol.uoa.grReferences: Alpert, P., Ben-Gai, T., Baharad, A., Benjamini, Y., Yekutieli, D., Colacino, M., Diodato, L., Manes, A., The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett, 29 (11), p. 1536. , 10.1029/2001GL013554; Amanatidis, G.T., Paliatsos, A.G., Repapis, C.C., Bartzis, J.G., Decreasing precipitation trend at Marathon area, Greece (1993) Int. J. Climatol, 13, pp. 191-201; Amanatidis, G.T., Repapis, C.C., Paliatsos, A.G., Precipitation trends and periodicities in Greece (1997) Fresen Environ. Bull, 6, pp. 314-319; Anagnostopoulou, Chr., Tolika, K., Flocas, H., and Maheras, P.: Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: Present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P), Adv. Geosci., 7, 9-14, 2006, http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/9/2006/Atkinson, B.W., Effect of an urban area on the precipitation from a moving thunderstorm (1971) J. Appl. Meteorol, 10 (1), pp. 47-55; Bornstein, R., Lin, Q., Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three cases studies (2000) Atmos. Environ, 34, pp. 507-516; Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T., Changes in total precipitation, rainy days and extreme events in northeastern Italy (2001) Int. J. Climatol, 21, pp. 861-871; Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Monti, F., Nanni, T., Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution in Italy over the last 120 years (2004) J. Geophys. Res, 109, pp. D05102. , doi:10.1029/2003JD004296; Cicek, I., Turkoglu, N., (2005) Urban effects on precipitation in Ankara, Atmoosfera, 18 (3), pp. 173-187; Ding, Y.G., Study of the generality of the Gamma precipitation distribution model (1992) 5th Int. Meeting on Statistical Climatology, pp. 499-503. , June 22-26, Toronto; Douville, H., Chauvin, F., Planton, S., Royer, J.F., Salas-Melia, D., Tyteca, S., Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols (2002) Clim. Dyn, 20, pp. 45-68; Easterling, D.R., Evans, J.L., Groisman, P.Y., Karl, T.R., Kunkel, K.E., Ambenje, P., Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review (2000) Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 81, pp. 417-425; Fauchereau, N., Trzaska, S., Rouault, M., Richard, Y., Rainfall variavility and changes in Southern Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context (2003) Nat. Hazards, 29, pp. 139-154; Flocas, A.A., Bloutsos, A.A., Giles, B.D., Trends and periodicities of rainfall over Greece (1990) Climatic Change in the Historical and the Instrumental Periods, pp. 298-305. , edited by: Brazdil, R, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; Folland, C. K. and Karl, T. R.: Observed climate variability and change, pp. 99-181, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by: Houghton, J. T., et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp., 2001Forland, E. J., van Engelen, A., Aschcroft J., et al.: Change in 'normal' precipitation in the North Atlantic region (2nd edn), DMNI Report 9/96 Klima, 1996Goldreich, A., Manes, Y., (1979) Urban effects of precipitation patterns in the greater Tel-Aviv area, Archiv fur Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie, Serie B, pp. 213-224; Groisman, P.Y., Karl, T.R., Easterling, D.R., Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change (1999) Clim. Change, 42, pp. 243-283; Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R., Karl, T.R., Hegerl, G.C., Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record (2005) J. Clim, 18 (9), pp. 1326-1350; Guo, X., Fu, D., Wang, J., Mesoscale convective precipitation system modifiedd by urbanization in Beijing City (2006) Atmos. Res, 82, pp. 112-126; Guttman, N.B., Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., Regional precipitation quantile values for the continental United States computed from L-moments (1993) J. Clim, 6, pp. 2326-2340; Hurrell, J.W., Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscilation: Regional temperatures and precipitation (1995) Science, 269 (5224), pp. 676-679; Hurrell, J.W., Van Loon, H., Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (1997) Clim. Change, 36, pp. 301-326; Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (2001) Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third IPCC Scientific Assessment, , IPCC, Chapter 8, Model Evaluation; Iwashima, T., Yamamoto, R., A statistical analysis of the extreme events: Long-term trend of heavy daily precipitation (1993) J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 71, pp. 637-640; Jauregui, E., Romales, E., Urban effects on convective precipitation in Mexico City (1996) Atmos. Environ, 30 (20), pp. 3383-3389; Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Plummer, N., Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century (1995) Nature, 377, pp. 217-220; Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Secular trends of precipitation amount frequency and intensity in the United States (1998) Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 79, pp. 231-241; Katsoulis, B.D., Kambezidis, H.D., Analysis of the long-term precipitation series at Athens, Greece (1989) Clim. Change, 14, pp. 263-290; Katsoulis, V.D., Pappas, C., Study of the application of the gamma distribution to the frequency distribution of the precipitation (2000) Proceedings of the 5th Hellenic Scientific Congress in Meteorology-Climatology-Atmospheric Physics, Thessaloniki, Greece, 28-30, pp. 277-284. , September; Maheras, P., La variabilite des precipitations dans la mer Egee, Archiv Met Geoph Bioklim (1981) Series B, 29, pp. 157-166; Maheras, P., Kolyva-Mahera, F., Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual precipitation over Balkans in the twentieth century (1990) Int. J. Climatol, 10, pp. 495-504; Mantis, H.T., Repapis, C.C., Philandras, C.M., Paliatsos, A.G., Amanatidis, G.T., The spatial and temporal structure of the precipitation climate the Eastern Mediterranean; Background for a study of Climate Change (1994) EUR 17458, Eastern Europe and Global Change, Kassandra, pp. 125-131. , edited by: A. Ghazi, P. Mathy and C. Zerefos, Halkidiki, Greece, 3-10 October; Mariotti, A., Zeng, N., Lau, K.M., Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO-a seasonally varying relationship (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett, 29 (12), p. 1621. , doi:10.1029/2001GL014248; Metaxas, D.A., Philandras, C.M., Nastos, P.T., Repapis, C.C., Variabiility of precipitation pattern in Greece during the year (1999) Fresen Environ. Bull, 8, pp. 1-6; Nastos, P.T., Changements de la pluviosite en region Hellenique pendant la periode 1858-1992 (1993) Proceedings of the 6th Colloque International de Climatologie, 6, pp. 183-190. , 22-25 Septembre, Thessaloniki, Grece; Neyers, S.: On the statistical analysis of meteorological observations, WMO Techn Note, No. 143, 1990Philandras, C.M., Metaxas, D.A., Nastos, P.T., Climate variability and urbanization in Athens (1999) Theor. Appl. Climatol, 63 (1-2), pp. 65-72; Repapis, C.C., Temporal fluctuations of precipitation in Greece, Rivista di Meteor Aeron (1986) XLVI, 1-2, pp. 19-25; Ross, R.J., Elliott, W.P., Radiosonde-based Northern Hemisphere tropospheric water vapour trends (2001) J. Climate, 14, pp. 1602-1612; Schonwiese, C.D., Rapp, J., (1997) Climate Trend Atlas of Europe Based on Observations 1891-1990, , Kluer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht; Sun, B., Groisman, P.Y., Bradley, R.S., Keiming, F.T., Temporal Changes in the Observed Relationship between Cloud Cover and Surface Air Temperature (2000) J. Climate, 13, pp. 4341-4357; Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K.J., Trends in total rainfall events and number of dry events in Australia, 1910-1990 (1998) Int. J. Climatol, 18, pp. 1141-1164; Thom, H.C.S., A note on the gamma distribution (1958) Mon. Wea. Rev, 86, pp. 117-122; Thom, H.C.S., (1971) Some methods of climatological analysis, WMO Techn, , Note, No. 81; Torrence, C., Compo, G.P., A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis (1998) Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 79, pp. 61-78; Trenberth, K.E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R.M., Parsons, D.B., The changing character of precipitation (2003) Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 84, pp. 1205-1217; Tymbios, F.S., Michaelides, S.C., Analysis of the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation extreme events in Cyprus (2002) Proceedings of the 6th Hellenic Scientific Congress in Meteorology-Climatology-Atmospheric Physics, Janina, Greece, 25-28, pp. 476-483. , September; Wilks, D.S., (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, , Academic Press, San Diego, CA; Xoplaki, E., Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F., Luterbacher, J., Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: Influence of large-scale dynamics and trends (2004) Clim. Dyn, 23, pp. 63-78; Yonetani, T., Increase in number of days with heavy precipitation in Tokyo urban area (1982) J. Appl. Meteorol, 21 (10), pp. 1466-1471; Zerefos, C.S., Kosmas, G.B., Repapis, C.C., Zambakas, J.D., (1977) Time series analysis of rain at Athens National Observatory during the century 1871-1970, , Laboratory of Climatology, University of Athens, Publication No. 14 in Greek; Zhang, X., Hogg, W.D., Mekis, E., Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events in Canada (2001) J. Climate, 14, pp. 1923-1936