Direct estimation of SIR model parameters through second-order finite differences

Medvedeva, Marina; Theodore E. Simos; Tsitouras, Charalampos; Vasilios Katsikis

Direct estimation of SIR model parameters through second-order finite differences

Citation:

Medvedeva, M., Simos, T. E., Tsitouras, C., & Katsikis, V. (2020). Direct estimation of SIR model parameters through second-order finite differences. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, n/a(n/a). presented at the 2020, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copy at http://www.tinyurl.com/yylkw6v9

Abstract:

SIR model is widely used for modeling the infectious diseases. This is a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The numbers of susceptible, infectious, or immunized individuals are the compartments in these equations and change in time. Two parameters are the factor of differentiating these models. Here, we are not interested in solving the ODEs describing a certain SIR model. Given the observed data, we try to estimate the parameters that determine the model. For this, we propose a least squares approach using second-order centered differences for replacing the derivatives appeared in the ODEs. Then we arrive at a simple linear system that can be solved explicitly and furnish the approximations of the parameters. Numerical results over various artificial data verify the simplicity and accuracy of the new method.

Notes:

https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.6985

Publisher's Version

Contact Details

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Office: 601 (Floor 6)
Phone number: (+30) 210-3689489
Address: Sofokleous 1, 10559, Athens, Greece
Email: vaskatsikis@econ.uoa.gr
URL: http://scholar.uoa.gr/vaskatsikis
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Vasilios Katsikis

Professor, Economics

Direct estimation of SIR model parameters through second-order finite differences

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