As part of a network study of HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) and their contacts, we discovered a connected subcomponent of 29 uninfected PWID. In the context of a just-declining large epidemic outbreak, this raised a question: What explains the existence of large pockets of uninfected people? Possible explanations include "firewall effects" (Friedman et al., 2000; Dombrowski et al., 2017) wherein the only HIV+ people that the uninfected take risks with have low viral loads; "bottleneck effects" wherein few network paths into the pocket of non-infection exist; low levels of risk behavior; and an impending outbreak. We considered each of these. Participants provided information on their enhanced sexual and injection networks and assisted us in recruiting network members. The largest connected component had 241 members. Data on risk behaviors in the last 6 months were collected at the individual level. Recent infection was determined by LAg (Sedia(TM) Biosciences Corporation), data on recent seronegative tests, and viral load. HIV RNA was quantified using Artus HI Virus-1 RG RT-PCR (Qiagen). The 29 members of the connected subcomponent of uninfected participants were connected (network distance = 1) to 17 recently-infected and 24 long-term infected participants. Fourteen (48%) of these 29 uninfected were classified as "extremely high risk" because they self-reported syringe sharing and had at least one injection partner with viral load >100,000 copies/mL who also reported syringe sharing. Seventeen of the 29 uninfected were re-interviewed after 6 months, but none had seroconverted. These findings show the power of network research in discovering infection patterns that standard individual-level studies cannot. Theoretical development and exploratory network research studies may be needed to understand these findings and deepen our understanding of how HIV does and does not spread through communities. Finally, the methods developed here provide practical tools to study "bottleneck" and "firewall" network hypotheses in practice.

Given globalization and other social phenomena, controlling the spread of infectious diseases has become an imperative public health priority. A plethora of interventions that in theory can mitigate the spread of pathogens have been proposed and applied. Evaluating the effectiveness of such interventions is costly and in many circumstances unrealistic. Most important, the community effect (i.e., the ability of the intervention to minimize the spread of the pathogen from people who received the intervention to other community members) can rarely be evaluated. Here we propose a study design that can build and evaluate evidence in support of the community effect of an intervention. The approach exploits molecular evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in order to track new infections as having arisen from either a control or an intervention group. It enables us to evaluate whether an intervention reduces the number and length of new transmission chains in comparison with a control condition, and thus lets us estimate the relative decrease in new infections in the community due to the intervention. We provide as an example one working scenario of a way the approach can be applied with a simulation study and associated power calculations.

New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) rocketed in Athens, Greece between 2011 and 2014 (HIV-1 outbreak). Our aim was to identify, during that period, potential cross-group transmissions between the within-Greece PWID and other risk or national groups using molecular methods. Sequences from 33 PWID were outside the PWID-outbreak networks in Greece (PWID-imported transmissions). Phylogenetic analyses on 28 of these sequences (subtypes A and B) showed that 11 subtype B infections originated from Greece, whereas 8 and 7 subtype A strains were from former Soviet Union countries (A(FSU)) and Greece, respectively. The putative source in half of the PWID-imported transmissions with Greek origin was an individual who acquired HIV via sexual contact. During four years of an HIV-1 outbreak among PWID in Athens, Greece, 33 individuals in this group (4.6% of all diagnoses with phylogenetic analyses) are likely to represent infections, sexually or injection-acquired, outside the within-Greece-PWID-outbreak networks. Combined molecular and traditional HIV surveillance to monitor introductions of new strains, and interventions that aim at reducing the rate of both injection and sexual risky practices are needed during drug injection-related HIV outbreaks.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, a global public health problem can be asymptomatic, acute or chronic and can lead to serious consequences of infection, including cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. HBV, a partially double stranded DNA virus, belongs to the family Hepadnaviridae, and replicates via reverse transcription of an RNA intermediate. This reverse transcription is catalyzed by a virus-encoded polymerase that lacks proof reading ability, which leads to sequence heterogeneity. HBV is classified into nine genotypes and at least 35 subgenotypes, which may be characterized by distinct geographical distributions. This HBV diversification and distinct geographical distribution has been proposed to be the result of the co-expansion of HBV with modern humans, after their out-of-Africa migration. HBeAg is a non-particulate protein of HBV that has immunomodulatory properties as a tolerogen that allows the virus to establish HBV infection in vivo. During the natural course of infection, there is seroconversion from a HBeAg-positive phase to a HBeAg-negative, anti-HBe-positive phase. During this seroconversion, there is loss of tolerance to infection and immune escape-HBeAg-negative mutants can be selected in response to the host immune response. The different genotypes and, in some cases, subgenotypes develop different mutations that can affect HBeAg expression at the transcriptional, translational and post-translational levels. The ability to develop mutations, affecting HBeAg expression, can influence the length of the HBeAg-positive phase, which is important in determining both the mode of transmission and the clinical course of HBV infection. Thus, the different genotypes/subgenotypes have evolved in such a way that they exhibit different modes of transmission and clinical manifestation of infection. Loss of HBeAg may be a sign of short-sighted evolution because there is loss of tolerogenic ability of HBeAg and HBeAg-negative virions are less transmissible. Depending on their ability to lead to HBeAg seroconversion, the genotype/subgenotypes exhibit varying degrees of short-sighted evolution. The "arms race" between HBV and the immune response to HBeAg is multifaceted and its elucidation intricate, with transmissibility and persistence being important for the survival of the virus. We attempt to shed some light on this complex interplay between host and virus.

BACKGROUND: TRIP (Transmission Reduction Intervention Project) was a network-based, contact tracing approach to locate and link to care, mostly people who inject drugs (PWID) with recent HIV infection. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether sequences from HIV-infected participants with high viral load cluster together more frequently than what is expected by chance. METHODS: Paired end reads were generated for 104 samples using Illumina MiSeq next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: 63 sequences belonged to previously identified local transmission networks of PWID (LTNs) of an HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece. For two HIV-RNA cut-offs (105 and 106 IU/mL), HIV transmissions were more likely between PWID with similar levels of HIV-RNA (p<0.001). 10 of the 14 sequences (71.4%) from PWID with HIV-RNA >106 IU/mL were clustered in 5 pairs. For 4 of these clusters (80%), there was in each one of them at least one sequence from a recently HIVinfected PWID. CONCLUSION: We showed that transmissions are more likely among PWID with high viremia.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection constitutes a global public health problem. In order to establish how HBV was disseminated across different geographic regions, we estimated the levels of regional clustering for genotypes D and A. We used 916 HBV-D and 493 HBV-A full-length sequences to reconstruct their global phylogeny. Phylogeographic analysis was conducted by the reconstruction of ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony. The putative origin of genotype D was in North Africa/Middle East. HBV-D sequences form low levels of regional clustering for the Middle East and Southern Europe. In contrast, HBV-A sequences form two major clusters, the first including sequences mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, and the second including sequences mostly from Western and Central Europe. Conclusion: We observed considerable differences in the global dissemination patterns of HBV-D and HBV-A and different levels of monophyletic clustering in relation to the regions of prevalence of each genotype.

BACKGROUND: The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) is a network-based intervention that aims at decreasing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) spread. We herein explore associations between transmission links as estimated by phylogenetic analyses, and social network-based ties among persons who inject drugs (PWID) recruited in TRIP. METHODS: Phylogenetic trees were inferred from HIV-1 sequences of TRIP participants. Highly supported phylogenetic clusters (transmission clusters) were those fulfilling 3 different phylogenetic confidence criteria. Social network-based ties (injecting or sexual partners, same venue engagement) were determined based on personal interviews, recruitment links, and field observation. RESULTS: TRIP recruited 356 individuals (90.2% PWID) including HIV-negative controls; recently HIV-infected seeds; long-term HIV-infected seeds; and their social network members. Of the 150 HIV-infected participants, 118 (78.7%) were phylogenetically analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses suggested the existence of 13 transmission clusters with 32 sequences. Seven of these clusters included 14 individuals (14/32 [43.8%]) who also had social ties with at least 1 member of their cluster. This proportion was significantly higher than what was expected by chance. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular methods can identify HIV-infected people socially linked with another person in about half of the phylogenetic clusters. This could help public health efforts to locate individuals in networks with high transmission rates.

A molecular epidemiology study of HIV-1 infection was conducted in one hundred diagnosed and untreated HIV-1-infected patients in Cyprus between 2010 and 2012, representing 65.4% of all the reported HIV-1 infections in Cyprus in this three-year period, using a previously defined enrolment strategy. Eighty-two patients were newly diagnosed (genotypic drug resistance testing within six months from diagnosis), and eighteen patients were HIV-1 diagnosed for a longer period or the diagnosis date was unknown. Phylogenetic trees of the pol sequences obtained in this study with reference sequences indicated that subtypes B and A1 were the most common subtypes present and accounted for 41.0 and 19.0% respectively, followed by subtype C (7.0%), F1 (8.0%), CRF02_AG (4.0%), A2 (2.0%), other circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) (7.0%) and unknown recombinant forms (URFs) (12%). Most of the newly-diagnosed study subjects were Cypriots (63%), males (78%) with median age 39 (Interquartile Range, IQR 33-48) reporting having sex with other men (MSM) (51%). A high rate of clustered transmission of subtype B drug-sensitive strains to reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors was observed among MSM, twenty-eight out of forty-one MSM study subjects (68.0%) infected were implicated in five transmission clusters, two of which are sub-subtype A1 and three of which are subtype B strains. The two largest MSM subtype B clusters included nine and eight Cypriot men, respectively, living in all major cities in Cyprus. There were only three newly diagnosed patients with transmitted drug resistant HIV-1 strains, one study subject from the United Kingdom infected with subtype B strain and one from Romania with sub-subtype A2 strain, both with PI drug resistance mutation M46L and one from Greece with sub-subtype A1 with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) drug resistance mutation K103N.

BACKGROUND: HBsAg immune-escape mutations can favor HBV-transmission also in vaccinated individuals, promote immunosuppression-driven HBV-reactivation, and increase fitness of drug-resistant strains. Stop-codons can enhance HBV oncogenic-properties. Furthermore, as a consequence of the overlapping structure of HBV genome, some immune-escape mutations or stop-codons in HBsAg can derive from drug-resistance mutations in RT. This study is aimed at gaining insight in prevalence and characteristics of immune-associated escape mutations, and stop-codons in HBsAg in chronically HBV-infected patients experiencing nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) in Europe. METHODS: This study analyzed 828 chronically HBV-infected European patients exposed to ≥ 1 NA, with detectable HBV-DNA and with an available HBsAg-sequence. The immune-associated escape mutations and the NA-induced immune-escape mutations sI195M, sI196S, and sE164D (resulting from drug-resistance mutation rtM204 V, rtM204I, and rtV173L) were retrieved from literature and examined. Mutations were defined as an aminoacid substitution with respect to a genotype A or D reference sequence. RESULTS: At least one immune-associated escape mutation was detected in 22.1% of patients with rising temporal-trend. By multivariable-analysis, genotype-D correlated with higher selection of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutation (OR[95%CI]:2.20[1.32-3.67], P = 0.002). In genotype-D, the presence of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutations was significantly higher in drug-exposed patients with drug-resistant strains than with wild-type virus (29.5% vs 20.3% P = 0.012). Result confirmed by analysing drug-naïve patients (29.5% vs 21.2%, P = 0.032). Strong correlation was observed between sP120T and rtM204I/V (P < 0.001), and their co-presence determined an increased HBV-DNA. At least one NA-induced immune-escape mutation occurred in 28.6% of patients, and their selection correlated with genotype-A (OR[95%CI]:2.03[1.32-3.10],P = 0.001). Finally, stop-codons are present in 8.4% of patients also at HBsAg-positions 172 and 182, described to enhance viral oncogenic-properties. CONCLUSIONS: Immune-escape mutations and stop-codons develop in a large fraction of NA-exposed patients from Europe. This may represent a potential threat for horizontal and vertical HBV transmission also to vaccinated persons, and fuel drug-resistance emergence.

PURPOSE: This paper presents an overview of different kinds of risk and social network methods and the kinds of research questions each can address. RECENT FINDINGS: It also reviews what network research has discovered about how network characteristics are associated with HIV and other infections, risk behaviors, preventive behaviors, and care, and discusses some ways in which network-based public health interventions have been conducted. Based on this, risk and social network research and interventions seem both feasible and valuable for addressing the many public health and social problems raised by the widespread use of opioids in the US South.

HERV-K HML-2 (HK2) has been proliferating in the germ line of humans at least as recently as 250,000 years ago, with some integrations that remain polymorphic in the modern human population. One of the solitary HK2 LTR polymorphic integrations lies between exons 17 and 18 of RASGRF2, a gene that affects dopaminergic activity and is thus related to addiction. Here we show that this antisense HK2 integration (namely RASGRF2-int) is found more frequently in persons who inject drugs compared with the general population. In a Greek HIV-1-positive population (n = 202), we found RASGRF2-int 2.5 times (14 versus 6%) more frequently in patients infected through i.v. drug use compared with other transmission route controls (P = 0.03). Independently, in a United Kingdom-based hepatitis C virus-positive population (n = 184), we found RASGRF2-int 3.6 times (34 versus 9.5%) more frequently in patients infected during chronic drug abuse compared with controls (P < 0.001). We then tested whether RASGRF2-int could be mechanistically responsible for this association by modulating transcription of RASGRF2 We show that the CRISPR/Cas9-mediated insertion of HK2 in HEK293 cells in the exact RASGRF2 intronic position found in the population resulted in significant transcriptional and phenotypic changes. We also explored mechanistic features of other intronic HK2 integrations and show that HK2 LTRs can be responsible for generation of cis-natural antisense transcripts, which could interfere with the transcription of nearby genes. Our findings suggest that RASGRF2-int is a strong candidate for dopaminergic manipulation, and emphasize the importance of accurate mapping of neglected HERV polymorphisms in human genomic studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genetic polymorphisms within the promoter of interferon-α receptor type-1 (IFNAR1) have been associated with the susceptibility to and the outcome of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, the impact of these polymorphisms in the transcriptome of the HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains largely unexplored. METHODS: Using whole-genome and exome sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas project, we characterized three single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs: -568G/C, -408C/T, -3C/T) and one variable number tandem repeat [VNTR: -77(GT)n] within the IFNAR1 promoter sequence in 49 HCC patients. RNAseq data from 10 genotyped HCC samples were grouped according to their -77VNTR or -3SNP genotype to evaluate the impact of these polymorphisms on the differential expression on the HCC transcriptome. RESULTS: There is a fourfold higher impact of the -77VNTR on the HCC transcriptome compared to the -3SNP (q < 0.1, p < 0.001). The expression of the primary IFNAR1 transcript is not affected by these polymorphisms but a secondary, HCC-specific transcript is expressed only in homozygous -77VNTR ≤8/≤8(GT)n samples (p < 0.05). At the same time, patients carrying at least one -77VNTR >8(GT) allele, presented a strong upregulation of the fibronectin-1 (FN-1) gene, which has been associated with the development of HCC. Gene Ontology and pathway enrichment analysis of the differentially expressed genes revealed a strong disruption of the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway, which can be partially triggered by the extracellular matrix FN-1. CONCLUSION: The IFNAR-1 promoter polymorphisms are not involved in the expression levels of the main IFNAR-1 transcript. The -77VNTR has a regulatory role on the expression of a secondary, truncated, HCC-specific transcript, which in turn coincides with disruptions in cancer-associated pathways and in FN-1 expression modifications.

BACKGROUND: Eastern European countries including Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet Union (FSU) countries have experienced an HIV epidemic spreading mostly among people who inject drugs (PWID). We aimed to investigate the origin and the dispersal patterns of HIV-1 CRF02_AG in Russia and other FSU countries. METHODS: We studied 136 CRF02_AG sequences originating from Russia, and FSU countries along with a globally sampled dataset of 3,580 CRF02_AG sequences. Maximum-likelihood phylogeny reconstruction with bootstrap evaluation was conducted in RAxML. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis was performed in BEAST v1.8 using the discrete trait model. RESULTS: We found that all CRF02_AG sequences from Russia and other FSU countries formed a single monophyletic cluster within CRF02_AG radiation. The Russian/FSU clade was classified as CRF63_02A1. Sequences from the FSU countries clustered further within distinct subclades (two from Russia, three from Uzbekistan and one Kazakhstan) according to the geographic origin of sampling. Molecular clock analysis revealed that the tMRCA of the CRF63_02A1 epidemic was in 1996 (95%HPD: 1992-1999), while for the two Russian subclades, tMRCA was estimated in 2003 (95%HPD: 2001-2004) and in 2007 (95%HPD: 2005-2008). Phylogeographic analysis suggested that the potential origin of the epidemic was in Uzbekistan. Early dispersal of CRF63_02A1 occurred in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and thereafter the epidemic spread to Russia. Notably, spillover transmissions to Russia kept occurring in both countries. DISCUSSION: Previous studies have shown that Russia and Ukraine have provided the source for the PWID-driven, HIV-1 subtype-A epidemic, spreading across the FSU countries (AFSU). In great contrast, CRF63_02A1 established an epidemic in central Asia (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan), from where it subsequently disseminated to Russia. Our study suggests that cross-border transmissions among PWID occur bi-directionally between Russian and other FSU populations. These results are of public health importance and suggest that prevention actions have to be reinforced in this area to assist the management of high-risk practices.

Since HIV-1 treatment is increasingly considered an effective preventionstrategy, it is important to study local HIV-1 epidemics to formulate tailored preventionpolicies. The prevalence of HIV-1 in Cyprus was historically low until 2005. To investigatethe shift in epidemiological trends, we studied the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 in Cyprususing a densely sampled Cypriot HIV-1 transmission cohort that included 85 percent ofHIV-1-infected individuals linked to clinical care between 1986 and 2012 based on detailedclinical, epidemiological, behavioral and HIV-1 genetic information. Subtyping andtransmission cluster reconstruction were performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesianmethods, and the transmission chain network was linked to the clinical, epidemiological andbehavioral data. The results reveal that for the main HIV-1 subtype A1 and B sub-epidemics,young and drug-naïve HIV-1-infected individuals in Cyprus are driving the dynamics of thelocal HIV-1 epidemic. The results of this study provide a better understanding of thedynamics of the HIV-1 infection in Cyprus, which may impact the development of preventionstrategies. Furthermore, this methodology for analyzing densely sampled transmissiondynamics is applicable to other geographic regions to implement effective HIV-1 preventionstrategies in local settings.

Ukraine has one of the largest HIV epidemics in Europe, historically driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). The epidemic showed signs of stabilization in 2012, but the recent war in eastern Ukraine may be reigniting virus spread. We investigated the movement of HIV-infected people within Ukraine before and during the conflict. We analyzed HIV-1 subtype-Anucleotide sequences sampled during 2012-2015 from 427 patients of 24 regional AIDS centers and used phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct virus movement among different locations in Ukraine. We then tested for correlations between reported PWID behaviors and reconstructed patterns of virus spread. Our analyses suggest that Donetsk and Lugansk, two cities not controlled by the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine, were significant exporters of the virus to the rest of the country. Additional analyses showed that viral dissemination within the country changed after 2013. Spearman correlation analysis showed that incoming virus flow was correlated with the number of HIV-infected internally displaced people. Additionally, there was a correlation between more intensive virus movement and locations with a higher proportion of PWID practicing risky sexual behaviors. Our findings suggest that effective prevention responses should involve internally displaced people and people who frequently travel to war-affected regions. Scale-up of harm reduction services for PWID will be an important factor in preventing new local HIV outbreaks in Ukraine.

The well-characterized association between HLA-B*27:05 and protection against HIV disease progression has been linked to immunodominant HLA-B*27:05-restricted CD8T-cell responses toward the conserved Gag KK10 (residues 263 to 272) and polymerase (Pol) KY9 (residues 901 to 909) epitopes. We studied the impact of the 3 amino acid differences between HLA-B*27:05 and the closely related HLA-B*27:02 on the HIV-specific CD8T-cell response hierarchy and on immune control of HIV. Genetic epidemiological data indicate that both HLA-B*27:02 and HLA-B*27:05 are associated with slower disease progression and lower viral loads. The effect of HLA-B*27:02 appeared to be consistently stronger than that of HLA-B*27:05. In contrast to HLA-B*27:05, the immunodominant HIV-specific HLA-B*27:02-restricted CD8T-cell response is to a Nef epitope (residues 142 to 150 [VW9]), with Pol KY9 subdominant and Gag KK10 further subdominant. This selection was driven by structural differences in the F pocket, mediated by a polymorphism between these two HLA alleles at position 81. Analysis of autologous virus sequences showed that in HLA-B*27:02-positive subjects, all three of these CD8T-cell responses impose selection pressure on the virus, whereas in HLA-B*27:05-positive subjects, there is no Nef VW9-mediated selection pressure. These studies demonstrate that HLA-B*27:02 mediates protection against HIV disease progression that is at least as strong as or stronger than that mediated by HLA-B*27:05. In combination with the protective Gag KK10 and Pol KY9 CD8T-cell responses that dominate HIV-specific CD8T-cell activity in HLA-B*27:05-positive subjects, a Nef VW9-specific response is additionally present and immunodominant in HLA-B*27:02-positive subjects, mediated through a polymorphism at residue 81 in the F pocket, that contributes to selection pressure against HIV.CD8T cells play a central role in successful control of HIV infection and have the potential also to mediate the eradication of viral reservoirs of infection. The principal means by which protective HLA class I molecules, such as HLA-B*27:05 and HLA-B*57:01, slow HIV disease progression is believed to be via the particular HIV-specific CD8T cell responses restricted by those alleles. We focus here on HLA-B*27:05, one of the best-characterized protective HLA molecules, and the closely related HLA-B*27:02, which differs by only 3 amino acids and which has not been well studied in relation to control of HIV infection. We show that HLA-B*27:02 is also protective against HIV disease progression, but the CD8T-cell immunodominance hierarchy of HLA-B*27:02 differs strikingly from that of HLA-B*27:05. These findings indicate that the immunodominant HLA-B*27:02-restricted Nef response adds to protection mediated by the Gag and Pol specificities that dominate anti-HIV CD8T-cell activity in HLA-B*27:05-positive subjects.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated and compared the risk of clinically identified acquired drug resistance under immediate initiation [the currently recommended antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation strategy], initiation with CD4 cell count less than 500 cells/μl and initiation with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl. DESIGN: Cohort study based on routinely collected data from the HIV-CAUSAL collaboration. METHODS: For each individual, baseline was the earliest time when all eligibility criteria (ART-naive, AIDS free, and others) were met after 1999. Acquired drug resistance was defined using the Stanford classification as resistance to any antiretroviral drug that was clinically identified at least 6 months after ART initiation. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for time-varying (CD4 cell count, HIV RNA, AIDS, ART regimen, and drug resistance testing) and baseline (calendar period, mode of acquisition, sex, age, geographical origin, ethnicity and cohort) characteristics. RESULTS: In 50 981 eligible individuals, 10% had CD4 cell count more than 500 cells/μl at baseline, and 63% initiated ART during follow-up. Of 2672 tests for acquired drug resistance, 794 found resistance. The estimated 7-year risk (95% confidence interval) of acquired drug resistance was 3.2% (2.8,3.5) for immediate initiation, 3.1% (2.7,3.3) for initiation with CD4 cell count less than 500 cells/μl, and 2.8% (2.5,3.0) for initiation with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl. In analyses restricted to individuals with baseline in 2005-2015, the corresponding estimates were 1.9% (1.8, 2.5), 1.9% (1.7, 2.4), and 1.8% (1.7, 2.2). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the risk of acquired drug resistance is very low, especially in recent calendar periods, and that immediate ART initiation only slightly increases the risk. It is unlikely that drug resistance will jeopardize the proven benefits of immediate ART initiation.

BACKGROUND: The rate of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) may increase with wider use of antiretroviral therapy and can contribute to therapeutic failure. We analysed time trends in TDR among HIV seroconverters. METHODS: Using CASCADE data of individuals with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion, we examined HIV nucleotide sequences collected prior to antiretroviral therapy use from 1996-2012. All samples were taken within 12 months of testing HIV positive. Using logistic regression, we examined the association between TDR and year of seroconversion, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Of 4717 individuals seroconverting between 1996 and 2012, median (IQR) age at seroconversion was 33 (27, 39) years. The majority (3839; 92%) were male, mainly exposed through MSM (3767; 80%), and infected with subtype B (3464; 73%). Overall, 515 (11%) individuals had at least one drug resistance-related mutation; 280 individuals with nucleoside reverse transcriptase, 185 with nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase, and 144 with protease inhibitor mutations. Estimated TDR prevalence was 19.4% (8.2, 36.0) in 1996, significantly decreasing to 8.5% (5.9, 11.9) in 2012 [odds ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval (CI)) = 0.92 (0.90, 0.95) per year increase]. Individuals exposed through sex between men and women were significantly less likely to have been infected with a drug-resistant strain [OR (95% CI) = 0.59 (0.41, 0.87) compared with MSM], and there was marginal evidence that sampling during acute infection was associated with higher odds of resistance [OR (95% CI) = 1.20 (0.97, 1.7), P = 0.093] compared with later sampling. CONCLUSION: TDR has decreased over calendar time although a significant proportion of new infections still carry resistance-related mutations.