Date Presented:

2-6 Feb.

Abstract:

The present study investigates the alterations of the coastal area of the Acheloos’ deltaic complex (E. Greece) for the last 20 ka and the shoreline response to the anticipated sea level rise, according to various sea-level rise prediction scenarios. The distant and near past were reconstructed through the interpretation of seismic data, sediment cores and historical aerial imagery, while the future state was evaluated considering the IPCC sea-level rise projections, adapted to the specific geomorphological and sedimentological characteristics of the study area. The results indicate a significant alteration of the area throughout the Holocene, primarily driven by the constant sea level fluctuation, while for the recent past, severe erosion has been observed in the entire study area, in places reaching 250 m (~3.4 m/yr) for the past 75 years. The IPCC predictions for 2100 suggest a continuous reduction of the delta, by 10% to 20% of the present area, while considering the most extreme climatic scenario, the percentage of the lost area could reach up to 60% of the total deltaic plain. Regardless of the prevailing scenario, it was estimated that for each 0.1 m of sea-level rise, the average land loss at the deltaic area is approximately 2.8 km2.