Multi-state models defined in terms of CD4 counts are useful for modelling HIV disease progression. A Markov model with six progressive CD4-based states and an absorbing state (AIDS) was used to estimate the cumulative probability of progressing to AIDS in 158 HIV-1 infected haemophiliacs with known seroconversion (SC) dates. A problem arising in such analysis is how to define CD4-based states, since this marker is subject to measurement error and short timescale variability. Four approaches were used: no smoothing, ad hoc smoothing (to move to a later/previous state two consecutive measurements to later/previous states are needed), kernel smoothing and random effects (RE) models. The estimates were compared with the Kaplan-Meier estimate based solely on data concerning time to AIDS. There was an apparent lack of agreement between the Kaplan-Meier and the "no smoothing" estimate. With the exception of the "no smoothing" method, "ad hoc", kernel and RE estimates fell within the range of the 95 per cent CIs of the Kaplan-Meier curve. Simulations demonstrated that the use of raw CD4 counts provides overestimated transition intensities. Compared to the kernel method, ad hoc is easier to implement and overcomes the problem of the choice of bandwidth. The RE approach leads to simple models, since it usually results in very few transitions to previous states, and can handle individuals with sparse data by smoothing their predictions towards the population mean. Ad hoc was the method that performed better, in terms of bias, than the other smoothing approaches.

A cross-sectional study was carried out in employees of 17 Greek companies with the aim of assessing the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) virus, identifying associated prognostic/risk factors and evaluating the effectiveness of a questionnaire as a pre-screening tool. All participants were asked to complete a questionnaire and a random sample of them was asked to provide a blood sample for hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and antibodies to hepatitis C (anti-HCV) testing. Individual questions or combinations of them were evaluated in terms of their ability to detect HBV or HCV(+) cases. Of 9085 eligible employees, 6074 (67%) completed the questionnaire. Of 990 samples obtained, 19.9% were anti-HBc(+), 2.6% HBsAg(+) and 0.5% anti-HCV(+). All anti-HCV(+) cases had multiple parenteral risk factors. Multiple logistic regression identified associations between anti-HBc and older age, family members with chronic hepatitis, job category and history of transfusion before 1992. HBsAg(+) was associated with older age and history of transfusion before 1992. None of the risk/prognostic factors had sufficient sensitivity and specificity for HBV but report of at least one risk factor identified all HCV(+) cases. Anti-HCV screening of those with at least two parenteral risk factors not only identified all anti-HCV(+) cases but also resulted in 86% decrease in the screening cost. Under the light of recent treatment advances, targeted questionnaire-based screening of asymptomatic people may prove to be a cost-effective way to face hepatitis C.

The prevalence of TT virus (TTV) infection in various population groups from Athens, Greece, was assessed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using two primer sets from distinct regions of the genome: the conventional set derived from the open reading frame-1 (ORF-1) and the new, highly sensitive set targeting the region that includes the TATA signal localized upstream of ORF-2. Based on both primer sets, TTV DNA was detected in 42/50 (84.0%) healthy individuals, 42/50 (84.0%) chronic hepatitis C patients, 31/39 (79.5%) acute non-A-E hepatitis patients (group I), 14/16 (87.5%) renal failure patients with acute non-A-E hepatitis (group II), 47/50 (94.0%) intravenous drug users (IVDU), 36/50 (72.0%) hemophiliacs, and 21/31 (67.7%) hemodialysis patients. The presence of TTV was not associated with any particular risk group, and no differences were observed in relation to demographic, biochemical and virological characteristics between TTV DNA-positive and -negative patients. TTV did not seem to have a profound effect on the course of chronic C or acute non-A-E hepatitis either. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that TTV strains circulating in the greater metropolitan area of Athens belong not only to the G1 and G2 genotypes that are encountered worldwide, but also to G3 and to G5 that are found mainly in Europe and Asia, respectively. Further studies will shed light on the role of this highly prevalent virus.

To evaluate the safety and antiviral action of interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) in HIV-1 infection, we undertook a proof of concept study in 27 treatment-naive patients. Eligible patients comprised two groups: the IFN-alphaT group (n = 17), which received 5 MIU IFN-alpha s.c. daily for 32 consecutive days, and the IFN-alphaNT group (n = 10), which did not receive IFN-alpha prior to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), which was commenced on day 28 in both groups. IFN-alphaTreatment was well tolerated in 14 of the 17 patients of the IFN-alphaT group who completed the study. The mean HIV RNA reduction in the IFN-alphaT group on day 14 was 1.1 log(10). Viral load suppression was inversely associated with baseline viral load (p = 0.031). Four weeks after initiation of HAART, IFN-alphaT and IFN-alphaNT group patients had 2.40 and 1.82 log(10) HIV RNA reduction from baseline, respectively (p < 0.001). There was no evidence of cross-resistance with existing antiretrovirals in patients with HIV-RNA rebound after initial plasma viral load decline > or = 1 log(10) during IFN-alpha monotherapy. Thus, low daily IFN-alpha exhibits potent anti-HIV-1 activity in vivo without serious adverse effects. These properties render IFN-alpha an attractive candidate for further assessment as a constituent of HAART.