In this study, a comprehensive methodology for modelling the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is proposed to predict the future disease burden and assess whether the recent decline in the incidence of HCV may affect the future occurrence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. Using the prevalence of HCV, the distribution of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients within the various transmission groups and their infection-onset times, it was possible to reconstruct the incident infections per year in the past that progressed to CHC in Greece. The natural history of the disease was simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects using transition probabilities derived either empirically between fibrosis stages 0-4 or from literature review. Annual estimates of the incidence and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, HCC and mortality in Greece were obtained up to 2030. HCV incidence peaked in the late 1980s at five new infections/10,000 person-years. Under the assumption of 20-100% decline in HCV incidence after 1990, the cumulative number of incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from 2002-2030 was projected to be lower by 9.6-48.2% and 5.9-29.5%, respectively, than that estimated under the assumption of no decline. However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases and HCV-related deaths are predicted to decline in the next 30 years only under the assumption of complete elimination of new HCV infections after 1990. Despite the progress in the reduction of HCV transmission, primary prevention does not seem adequate to reverse the rise in the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC.

BACKGROUND: One HIV-1 and HCV assay simultaneously detects HIV-1 and HCV RNA (Procleix, Chiron Corp.). The main intended use of the assay is the testing of blood and blood products in blood banking. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: To evaluate the clinical sensitivity of the assay, 164 anti-HIV-1+ and 160 anti-HCV+ patients of different viral load were tested. The assay specificity was determined in 1000 HIV-1- and HCV-seronegative blood donors. The ability of the assay to detect different HCV genotypes was investigated in a total of 40 patients of different genotypes (1-4). Furthermore, to investigate the reduction of the HCV window phase before seroconversion, serial samples of 25 hemodialysis patients who seroconverted to anti-HCV were also tested. RESULTS: The assay detected all 60 HIV-1-infected patients with a viral load of greater than 50 copies per mL and 48 of 104 patients with a viral load of less than 50 copies per mL. Moreover, all 60 patients with an HCV RNA load of greater than 521 IU per mL and 7 of 100 patients with a viral load of less than 50 IU per mL tested positive. The assay specificity was found to be 100 percent. In addition, all 40 patients of different HCV genotypes were successfully detected. Finally, the median time that the assay detected HCV infection before second- and third-generation anti-HCV assay was found to be 183 and 91 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: The assay sensitivity and specificity, its ability to detect different HCV genotypes, and the significant reduction of window period of HCV infection further support its use for improving the safety of blood and blood products.

The LCx HIV RNA quantitative assay (Abbott Laboratories, Delkenheim, Germany) was compared with the Versant HIV-1 RNA 3.0 (bDNA) assay (Bayer, Tarrytown, NY) and the COBAS Amplicor HIV-1 Monitor v1.5 test (Roche Diagnostics, Branchburg, NJ), using plasma samples of various viral load levels from HIV-1-infected patients. Considering the lower limit of the linear range of 50 copies/ml of both assays, the detection range of the LCx was 127/151 (84.1%) versus the 131/151 (86.8%) of the bDNA 3.0 assay, while overall agreement between the two assays was 93.4% (141/151). LCx and bDNA 3.0 results were found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.96). The fitted regression line was described by the equation log10(LCx copies/ml) = 0.05 + 1.06 x log10(bDNA 3.0 copies/ml) with 95% CI for the estimated slope and intercept at 1.01, 1.12 and -0.16, 0.26, respectively. Similarly, the detection range of the LCx was 115/148 (77.7%) versus the 128/148 (86.5%) of the Monitor v1.5 test. A 91.2% concordance (135/148) was observed between these two assays at a cut-off of 50 copies/ml. LCx and Monitor v1.5 results were highly correlated (r = 0.96). The fitted regression line was described by the equation log10(LCx copies/ml) = 0.06 + 1.03 x log(10)(Monitor v1.5 copies/ml) with 95% CI for the estimated slope and intercept at 0.97, 1.09 and -0.16, 0.28, respectively.