Abstract:

 This paper presents a systemic analysis of the Iran-SyriaLebanon geopolitical sub-system within the frame of the Wider Middle East geo-complex and in light of the geopolitical factor of the Shiite Islamist movement. We consider that the Shiite Islamist movement, which is represented by Hezbollah in Lebanon and by proxy Shiite organizations in Iraq (Kataeb Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al Haq), has been transformed, under Tehran’s management and direction, into an important power redistribution factor in the region. Turkey’s foreign policy is evaluated as unsuccessful and dangerous for the security of the state of Israel and the stability of the Middle Eastern geopolitical system, particularly in relation to Ankara’s support of radical Islamist groups operating inside Syria. Ankara’s policy is also considered as a trigger mechanism for the acceleration of secessionist and state-formation ambitions, such as in the case of the gradual autonomy of an ethnically Kurdish zone in the northeastern Syrian territory. In addition, the US-Russian initiative for the destruction of the chemical arsenal of the Assad regime is evaluated as beneficial for the regional stability. Equally, we evaluate the US-Iranian negotiation process as a strategically agile diplomatic maneuver from Washington’s part.